Let's do the Math!!!

I know, I know!! I thought I would keep myself out of it.
I was wondering why Hillary is still in the race while the complicated democratic delegate math makes it next to impossible for her to win the nominee. Dig deeper, there is more sense to it. There are number of ways Hillary could hypothetically win the delegate math.

Lets consider, winner takes all delegates for a state, like the Republican Math. No super delegates here -
After PA, Hillary leads Obama by a healthy margin
Appx. 1560 vs 1260 not including Florida and Michigan.
Appx. 1735 vs 1260 including Florida. (No Michigan)
Wow!! that's a big lead.

Now lets forget about Republican math and work out General Elections math which probably makes more sense -
After PA, Hillary leads Obama
251 - 197 not including Florida and Michigan
278 - 197 including Florida (No Michigan)
She'd already be president ;)

If we discount the states which held caucuses which obviously do not reflect the popular vote. Remember Texas, where Clinton won the primary by 5% but lost Caucuses square and out by more than 15%. Barack leads Clinton 69 to 5 in electoral college votes for Caucus states, which could have gone either way -
Then, Hillary's electoral college lead in the states that held the primaries -
256 - 128 with out FL
273 - 128 with FL

There is more than one reason for Hillary to stay in the race. :)

I am sure they are presenting the super delegates with this kind of Math. If they are not already doing that, they should. But to atleast make a case, I think the popular Vote is something that she must probably win. Obama leads by 1.4% including Florida before PA results are counted. 422K more votes in hard numbers.

These are calculations from my own spreadsheet with data from different sources. So there are approximations. Hmmmm, don't I have anything better to do?

1 comment:

my life... said...

On one hand I really admire her passion but on the other hand...based on the present scenario...it’s in her and more importantly in the best interest of the Democratic Party to leave the campaign to Obama. I think the more time this war between the two of them goes on....the less time the Democratic Party will have a chance to focus on differentiating themselves from the Republicans.