Blessed are the Ignorants!!!
Star News, an Indian news channel has recently conducted an opinion poll ahead of the upcoming national elections. And they predicted 257 seats for Congress lead UPA, 184 for BJP lead NDA and 96 for the mix and match alliance with out a name tentatively being called 'Third Front'.
Sounds Alright... until you see the sample size for the poll - 50, 402. Yes, about 50K in a country of a billion non homogeneous people. Less than 100 per seat. Any one with even a slightest idea of the complexity of Indian electorate understands how ridiculous this is.
Are these polls even eligible to laugh at?
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2 comments:
how much do you think the sample size should be?
For e.g: This gallop poll has questioned ~1000 adults for a population of 300 mil.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/117025/Support-Nuclear-Energy-Inches-New-High.aspx
First, you are comparing an yes/no poll in a more or less homogeneous population in US with Indian elections that are going to be held across a country with 25 states, 10s of languages, 100s of castes, countless political parties with variety of local, regional, national, political, religious, ideological differentiators.
i don't think you can do a poll to gauge peoples opinion in India. India is too complex.
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